While
U.S. Central Command officials sketched a likely April or May time
frame for a looming battle against ISIS in Mosul last week, other
military officials tell CNN there are alternative strategies that
involve a series of strikes in other locations before an all out attack
on Mosul.
At the same time, new
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is making it clear he will not commit
quickly to a time table, and wants assurances the Iraqi military is up
to the task, a senior U.S. military official said.
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Carter wants to ensure military action is not ordered without strong indications Iraqi forces will be successful.
"If
we begin this, and it doesn't work, it will be very bad," the official
said of an effort to retake Mosul. "The secretary doesn't want it to go
faster than the Iraqis are ready to go."
The
official also underscored there is "not a broad consensus" among U.S.
and Iraqi military and government officials about the tentative
April-May launch or the first target city. In fact, some U.S. officials
are quietly suggesting that instead of Mosul, which is a densely
populated urban area, the first major target for Iraqi forces should be
Anbar province and areas west of Baghdad that may not be as militarily
challenging.
If
Mosul were to be first target, the Pentagon would very quickly have to
begin stepped up planning. Topping the to-do list is whether to
recommend to President Barack Obama that a small number of U.S. troops
be sent in to assist with targeting, which would bring the American
troops closer to the front lines. A Mosul attack would also require
additional intelligence, supply support and overhead reconnaissance
flights increased so a daily list of bombing targets could be
established.
The Pentagon and the
Central Command, which is running the war, insist that even during a
recent briefing for reporters that garnered global attention for
mentioning the April-May time frame, it was never an absolute.
"In
terms of the Mosul operation, we are still projecting that the shaping
for Mosul and the isolation of Mosul is going on now," a Central Command
official said during that briefing. "The preparation for the forces
that will participate in Mosul is ongoing right now. And the mark on the
wall that we are still shooting for is the April-May time frame."
But the official also offered a caveat.
"There
are still a lot of things that need to come together. And as we
dialogue with our Iraqi counterparts, we want them to go in that time
frame, because as you get into Ramadan and the summer and the heat, it
becomes problematic if it goes much later than that," the official said.
"But by the same token, if they're not ready, if the conditions are not
set, if all the equipment that they need is not physically there and
they are trained to a degree in which they will be successful, we have
not closed the door on continuing to slide that to the right."
A
key will be having multi-sectarian units that are sufficiently trained
to go to Mosul, rather than all-Shia brigades. The U.S. has already
trained 2,500 of the Iraqi troops earmarked for Mosul or other
operations, and has another 2,500 undergoing training. Mosul is
estimated to require ultimately 20,000 to 25,000 troops but it's not
likely they would all deploy at once.
Since
the beginning of January, the Defense Department has shipped weapons to
the Iraqi armed forces that will be available for use in the upcoming
battle for Mosul, a Defense Department official told CNN.
This
month the shipments include: 10,000 M-16s rifles, 10,000 M-68 close
combat optical scopes to improve on the ground targeting, and 23,000
ammunition magazines, at a cost of about $17 million, according to the
official.
"Thousands" of additional
helmets and Kevlar vests are being shipped as well, in addition to 250
MRAP mine-resistant vehicles shipped in January and the 232 Hellfire
missiles to Iraq sent this year. About 1,500 Hellfire missiles were
shipped in 2014.
The official said the
shipments were all planned, but the equipment will be in place for Iraqi
forces whenever the battle for Mosul begins.
